Mexico´s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs)
Leading the development of sectorial mitigation analysis to determine Mexico´s INDC commitments, both non-conditional and conditional, within the National Ecology and Climate Change Institute of Mexico (INECC)
In the months before COP21, held in Paris on December 2015, many countries delivered their “intended Nationally Determined Contributions” to the UNFCCC Secretariat. As Coordinator General of Climate Change and Low Carbon Development, Daniel Buira, now with Tempus Analítica, was in charge of the technical mitigation analysis behind Mexico´s INDC. He coordinated both sectorial studies and scenarios, as well as country-wide economic analyses, to generate the data on which policy-makers agreed the country´s commitments, as the first developing country to publish its INDCs in March of 2015. As an Energy Systems specialist freelancer Jordi Tovilla, now with Tempus Analítica, led the INDC Oil and Gas sectorial analysis, and was also a key member of the Power Generation sectorial work.
National Climate Change Strategy
Working within Mexico´s Ecology and Climate Change Institute (INECC) to provide baseline estimations, mitigation scenarios, and mitigation cost estimations to Mexico´s 2013 National Climate Change Strategy
Mexico´s Ministry of the Environment and Natural Resources, SEMARNAT, was charged with developing the National Climate Change Strategy as required by the General Climate Change Law, and requested the Ecology and Climate Change Institute (INECC) to generate the relevant analyses to inform the strategy. As an advisor to the President of INECC, Jordi Tovilla, now with Tempus Analítica, coordinated mitigation scenarios and mitigation cost estimates over the 2012-2050 timeframe, identifying many of the key challenges, policy needs and opportunities highlighted by the document.
Climate Technology Innovation and Transfer Strategy
Performing a strategic review of Mexico´s Climate Technology Innovation potential from an economic value perspective in collaboration with The Carbon Trust and UK Embassy Prosperity Fund support to identify areas of focus
Tackling climate change requires investments in technology and provides opportunities to accelerate technology innovation, transfer, and adoption in developed and developing countries. Combining an analysis of Mexico´s natural resource, industrial capabilities, access to markets, and current and future demand, the Ecology and Climate Change Institute, together with the Carbon Trust, undertook a strategic study to outline technology areas where Mexico may gain a competitive advantage, looking not only across multiple sectors of activity but also at technology areas of different levels of maturity in order to estimate key elements about the competitive landscapes of the future. As Coordinator General of Climate Change and Low Carbon Development, Daniel Buira, now with Tempus Analitica, was in charge of this analysis and presented the key results to the Minster of the Environment and Natural Resources (SEMARNAT).
Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) – Mexico
Creating a policy, technology deployment and CO2 emissions scenario for Mexico that links current-state inventory data with a 2050 goal of limiting global temperature increase to 2°C, by means of detailed multi-sectorial transition pathways, collaborating within the DDPP consortium convened by UNSDSN and IDDRI.
The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) is a global collaboration of energy research teams charting practical pathways to deeply reducing greenhouse gas emissions in their own countries. It is predicated on taking seriously what is needed to limit global warming to 2°C or less. By coordinating the work undertaken by 16 independent country teams along guiding principles the DDPP consortium has produced country-level results that can be aggregated to generate global messages. Shared methodological principles, such as “back-casting” to ensure the goal is met, and using common tools to report and combine results, allowed all groups to strengthen their analysis by learning from each other while maintaining control of their work. The combined results, which account for more than 70% of current GHG emissions, show that Deep Decarbonization is feasible, although it requires rapid and decisive action. Both the key messages and the methodological contributions of DDPP fed into the ambition of the Paris Agreement, particularly Article 4.19.
Towards the Energy Transition:
Perspectives from France and Mexico
In partnership with the French Sevelopment Agency (AFD), Tempus Analítica coordinated the technical agenda, liaised with expert speakers, and arranged all aspects of this France/Mexico high-level event celebrating the anniversary of both countries´ Energy Transition Laws.
Tempus Analítica provided French Development Agency (AFD) in-depth support in the design, planning, and execution of a high-level event, co-hosted by the Mexican Energy Ministry (SENER), which brought together experts and officials from both countries to discuss the achievements, challenges and opportunities resulting from the goals and initiatives of their corresponding Energy Transition Laws. We developed an agenda around core themes, liaising with numerous high-level officials, speakers, panelists and moderators to ensure a rich and insightful event.
Energy Transition Strategy
Working with Energy Minstry (SENER) to develop long-term energy use and demand scenarios and provid transition insights for Mexico´s 2016 Energy Transition Strategy
As part of the technical support provided by the Mexico Low Emissions Development Program (MLED), funded by USAID, to the Mexican Ministry of Energy (SENER) to produce the “Strategy for Transition to Use of Clean Fuels and Technologies” (ETPUTCL) as required by the 2015 Energy Transition Law, MLED Clean Energy Director Daniel Buira, now with Tempus Analitica, coordinated multiple consulting workstreams to develop a consistent scenarios of distributed energy generation and energy use among different sectors, including residential, transport, and industry. As an Energy Systems specialist freelancer Jordi Tovilla, now with Tempus Analítica, led the transport analysis for the Strategy, and also commented on SENER´s proprietary Electricity Generation scenarios. Daniel and Jordi´s also performed analysis for CONUEE, the Commission for the Efficient Use of Energy. Daniel and Jordi´s inputs led to a recognition that significant technological change and behavioral reduction in energy demand will be necessary if the energy matrix of 2050 is to be consistent with the requirements set out in the General Climate Change Law.
Our people have been instrumental, both as decision-makers and as trusted advisors, within many of the initiatives shaping Mexico´s climate and energy policy in recent years. Working closely with leading national and international institutions, we are invariably recognized for our technical rigor, strategic insight, and unwavering commitment to long-term sustainability.
We have also generated thought-provoking analyses on what it means in concrete terms to achieve the ambition of the Paris Agreement. Below are some projects delivered by our team, both within Tempus Analítica and in previous roles.
Updated analysis of Mexico's GHG emissions baseline, marginal emissions reduction cost curve and mitigation project portfolio
Working within Mexico´s Ecology and Climate Change Institute (INECC) to coordinate government participation in the project funded by USAID in 2012-13
As part of the cooperative efforts between the governments of US and Mexico to fight climate change, the USAID-funded Mexico’s Low Emissions Development Program (MLED) commissioned McKinsey & Co. to assist INECC in updating the analysis of the GHG emissions baseline, the marginal emissions reduction cost curve, and the mitigation projects portfolio. As an advisor to the President of INECC, Jordi Tovilla, now with Tempus Analítica, coordinated the technical resources provided by INECC to the project. The tools produced have been valuable inputs in the design of climate policy in Mexico, to identify potential actions to reduce GHG emissions and to compile the efforts in the matter in all sectors of the economy.
Modelling and Information for Low Emissions Strategies (MILES)
Strengthening modelling tools and decarbonization pathway scenarios for Mexico as part of the wider MILES initiative, funded by the European Union to strengthen modelling capabilities within emerging economies.
The Modelling and Informing Low Emission Strategies (MILES) project was launched by l’Institut du développement durable et des relations internationales (Iddri) in 2014, with the objective to produce global and national low-carbon scenarios, improve modelling capacity to address carbon mitigation and development-related issues in developing countries and to strengthen the integration between national and global-scale scenarios. Tempus Analítica has been subcontracted by Iddri under the MILES project to “develop modelling capacities for climate policy analysis” in Mexico.
Tempus Analítica seeks to both respond to key research questions regarding the analytical and narrative elements required in order to accelerate the development of decarbonization pathways and their inclusion in the mainstream planning processes within Mexico, as well as to update, strengthen, and make available to the broader research community a set of Deep Decarbonization Pathway scenarios for Mexico, improving on the analysis originally generated for the DDPP Mexico project.
Tempus Analítica is developing this research working closely with Iddri, and taking part in the MILES-wide workshop and peer-review process which promotes the exchange of information and feedback among all MILES national teams. We look forward to publishing our results in Summer 2017.